Market Analysis Summary
Dow Jones 15,303 -0.06%
SP500 1,649 -0.06%
NASDAQ 2,991 -0.01%
FSTE 6,654 -0.62%
Base Metals Mixed
US Spot Gold CFD 1393
US Spot Silver CFD 2238
Oil WTI CFD 93.82
US Copper CFD 329
US Dollar CFD 83.67
EURUSD 1.2930
AUDUSD 0.9650
DJI CFD 15,313
S&P500 CFD 1651
FTSE 100 CFD 6684
DAX CFD 8338
Shanghai Comp 2288
ASX 200 CFD 4958
Market Analysis Summary
Expect Lower Levels for Indices and Currencies This Week
- Rallies for US indices are in their later stages – expect downside midweek
Commodities – Once the USD completes its wave four retracement this week and moves up we can expect precious metals and base metals to correlate with US indices lower. Look too short weakness
Forex – The USD bullish retracement has matured as has the Euro’s corrective rally. Expect upside in the USD and downside in the Euro. The Trade short for the Euro would be the 129 as tested resistance. The AUDUSD is also in a Wave four corrective rally with the 9700 as the balance line. This corrective pattern will be in three swings and is now just completing the second swing Wave b of an abc corrective Wave iv)
Indices – US indices; from their highs last week have now seen an impulse wave lower, this means that after their current small rallies indices will move lower. Look to short the 61.8% rally retests on Tuesday or Wednesday
Stocks – Risk Off - Look to Short rallies
Precious Metals
US Spot Gold CFD 1393
TradingLevels above SG2 1365|1372|1380 the market is positive support on 1400 would also be positive. The Elliott wave is still suggesting that this pattern from the 20 May low 1338 is corrective, however a short trade setup would be 1372 as tested resistance.
Elliott Wave: The small pattern sitting on 1380 appears bullish corrective, which would see a new high above 1400. Support above 1400 is another question, as US indices would be expected to roll over very soon and gold has much the same pattern and therefore should follow.
Strategy: A safer short trade is 1372 as resistance.
US Spot Silver CFD 2238
Technical Analysis: Same - Support on 2300 creates long trades. 2200 as resistance creates short trades.
Oil WTI CFD 93.82
Technical Analysis: The Elliott wave is still suggesting one more low to complete the five waves lower and that the current pattern above 93.00 is wave four. A move below 93.00 would suggest Wave five would be starting and while the market is above 93.00 its supported. Oil is likely to follow stock, so when the Indices start their next leg lower Oil should follow with a above below 92.00 making a new low.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.28
US Nickel: Last: 6.67-
US Zinc: Last: 0.8251+
US Aluminium Last: 0.8106-
US Copper CFD 329
After the current vibration across 330 should be followed with a move lower, this will influence the materials sector lower. AU BHP has started its Wave a of the abc corrective retracement.
Forex Trading
US Dollar CFD 83.67
TradingLevels: Minor tradinglevel and the top of minor group1 is 83.00 and the support.
Elliott Wave: abc as Wave (iv) can be completed now, if so expect a higher USD and lower Euro along with lower indices. A correlation between indices and Euro would assist in confirm the direction
EURUSD 1.2930
TradingLevels: As the support of minorlevel mTL3|83.00 is for the USD as is the minorlevel mTL3 resistance for the Euro. These levels as support or resistance are highly critical for the next direction in trend. The Elliott wave is suggesting higher for the USD and lower fir the Euro, however we now require evidence and a trade set up.
Elliott Wave: The Euro and USD can now have a more matured abc wave four completed. For the Euro the 129 as resistance would assist in confirming a move lower
Trading Strategies: Intraday, the move down from the last high 12992 to 12910 is in five waves, after a corrective rally off the 12910 expect another five waves lower. The bounce off 12910 can either test the midpoint 12950 or 12972 before moving lower, these rally targets can also be price points to start building the short trade. Otherwise just use the 129 as tested resistance
AUDUSD 0.9650
TradingLevels: The 9650 midpoint is a small line in the sand, the Elliott is suggesting a move lower into SG1 of 96.00 then a move higher
Elliott Wave: The market is still in Wave (b) of the (a) (b) (c) corrective pattern as Wave iv). The Wave (b) at 9650 can still move lower into 96.00 before completing. Once completed five waves up as Wave (c) to retest 98
CFD Trading Strategies: Intraday traders - Buy the bounce off 96.00. If the 96.00 becomes the resistance then look to short. If the market fails to move closer to 96.00 then look for longs off 96.50 or 96.72. Trading in wave fours is not one of the optimum patterns to trade.
Indices
DJI CFD 15,313 Memorial Day May 27 Holiday
TradingLevels: Minorlevel 15,300 as support creates a positive market, that said the Elliott wave structure suggests that this is a corrective rally to 15,400 followed by a move lower towards 15,000
Elliott Wave: The abc corrective Wave ii rally is maturing now into the Wave c of ii. The 61.8% is 15,393.
Trading Strategies: Looking to short the abc Wave ii rally. A move to 15,400 and then finding 15,372 as resistance would be one set up.
The same for the midpoint 15,450 as tested resistance, but is must trade higher that the midpoint first, the develop resistance. Or the 15,300 as resistance would be the safe option.
S&P500 CFD 1651 Memorial Day May 27 Holiday
TradingLevels: The mediumlevel 1650 as tested support or resistance creates the next direction and the Elliott suggests after three swing the market would move lower.
Elliott Wave: The market is in Wave C) of the A) B) C) as Wave ii) rally 50/62% and supply levels 1660 - 1672
Trading Strategies: Count five waves up for Wave C) then short or wait for the 1650 to develop as tested resistance. Then looking to add to positions 1645 and 1640 expect a bounce off 1630 back to 1640 but hold short for the larger move lower
FTSE 100 CFD 6684 Spring Bank Holiday May 27
TradingLevels: Intraday - Trade long on tested support of 6700 adding on 6720 and 6730 taking profit at 6750. If support is created on 6750 then trade to 6765 and 6772 and exit and prepare to short using the sublevels lower as tested resistance.
Elliott Wave: Even though the UK is lower than the US, the wave structure appears lagging, that is the abc wave ii rally is starting here whereas the US indices are maturing. That said the UK indices will follow, so when the US indices complete Wave C) of two in the next session and start to move lower the UK Indices will have a short Wave ii rally to 6700 – 6720.
DAX CFD 8338
TradingLevels: Intraday; Support on 8330 creates the target at the midpoint 8350 and support on 8350 creates the SG2 8365|8372|8380. The 61.8% retracement level is 8350 as the Wave ii rally target.
Shanghai Comp 2288
The corrective pattern unfolding across 2300 (mTL3) is still in its early stages of development
ASX 200 CFD 4958
TradingLevels: The strong move lower last week is the wave three, the waves fours and fives are to come taking the market lower
Day Trading Strategy: Expect a retest of TL5|5000 and then another move lower. The retest of 5000 can be time consuming and can develop support on 5000 and retest slightly higher to 5050 the 38.2% retracement level.
It should also be noted that the current move down from the last high 5250 to the current low is in three waves i.e. bullish corrective. However I would expect the current rally off these lows would be a Wave (iv) retracement to 5050 or the wave four of one lesser degree 5100 but first things first the 4950 midpoint would be required to develop support. The US and UK market are closed tonight.
Today's Financial Events
Australian Time AEST
9:50am JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
All Day GBP Bank Holiday
All Day USD Bank Holiday
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting check the company financial calendar before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while US markets are trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
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